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In a review of the world’s media in the last fortnight, the range of side effects to the flu vaccine is increasing.  We have headlines blaring “the cure may be worse than the disease” and notifications of at least a third of British doctors refusing to administer a vaccine.

However, not all of these “side effects” are clinical – some are educational whilst others are based in incorrect perceptions and assumptions.  This article is something of a catch-all incorporating published stories related to side effects, mis-diagnoses and assumptions.

We are repeatedly reading tales of mis-diagnoses of swine flu in the first place.  Recently a 17-year-old English girl was diagnosed with swine flu, no fewer than 4 times, when in fact she had meningitis as the symptoms appeared similar to swine flu.  She is making slow recovery, but the delays in correct diagnosis caused loss of valuable time.

Indeed, we do need to closely look at what is in fact being diagnosed.  It’s not as simple as assuming a bug may be swine flu, what with new variants – including where swine flu strain is moving to birds - will be causing the medical community enormous challenges.

Looking to anti-virals – the most common ones being Tamiflu and Relenza (manufactured by Roche Holdings AG and Glaxo SmithKline PLC, respectively) – there has been significant and confusing commentary in recent weeks.  Whilst Tamiflu (in existence since 1999) reduces the “miserable symptoms” of swine flu and can shorten the period of illness, it shouldn’t be viewed as a panacea as perhaps had been suggested by the UK government’s mass distribution of Tamiflu mid-summer (with over 100,000 packages given to children, alone).  Further study is showing its effectiveness limited to about an 8% benefit in healthy adults.

According to the British Medical Journal, the “limited data” available shows that children under 12 are being reported as suffering vomiting and nightmares as a result of taking Tamiflu.  Dr Matthew Thompson,  a GP and researcher at Oxford University, cites drinks to cool temperatures and rest as the most effective treatment for flu in children.  Even some adults are found to have experienced “little impact” on the length of their illness, or “limited benefit”.

The situation is even less clear for vaccines.  With at least two manufacturers of a swine flu vaccine (Baxter in the USA and Sinovac Biotech in China being a couple that come to mind), governments around the world have had the confidence to books orders numbering in the tens of millions of doses.  However, its suitability for human purpose is still in doubt as there has been relatively low amounts of testing.

According to Forbes.com, Sinovac has been testing for less than a month, on just over 1,600 people showing that the vaccine has “good immunogenicity” and thus fit for use.  Additional research monies are being released worldwide, with one example being Canada whose government has just released $2.7 million (CDN) on top of the $10.8 million (CDN) already identified for fighting swine flu (CBC).  But no amount of money can help the critical factor of time to allow completeness of clinical studies – GSK, for example will not be finishing its testing of the swine flu shot until mid-2010 — long after both the predicted “second wave” and “third wave” of swine flu will have hit.

The biggest concern around the actual threat of the vaccine is because it (Panderix) contains thimerosal, a mercury-laden preservative which has actually been removed from most mainstream vaccines because of the clear links to neurological effects.  The mercury-free version is called Celvapan – do note however that there may be trace amounts of mercury as manufacturers are even in that case allowed to call the product “mercury free”.

Children are at greatest risk from these issues because they do not have a well developed immune system, their bodies are still growing, and pregnant mothers in many countries will be given the vaccine as a priority if they suspect swine flu.  In Texas, where 14 children have already died from swine flu, there is a plan to immunise children in the schools themselves.

But what are the actual risks?  Over and above the hit to the neuro system from the mercury, there are two significant risks being revealed:

  1. risk of “Guillain-Barr Syndrome (GBS) in which paralysis of the breathing muscles cause death by suffocation”.  We have proven examples of this following the 1976 mass vaccination programme in the US where over 500 cases (of whom 25 people died, compared to 1 death as a result of swine flu) of GBS were detected.  At its worst, GBS can prove fatal.
  2. German lung specialist, Dr Wolfgang Wodarg is deeply concerned about the possible risk of cancer in humans as the vaccine “consists of cancerous cells from animals”.

These don’t appear to be isolated concerns.  According to the Associated Press, about half of health workers in Hong Kong would reject having the swine flu vaccine and in the UK at least a third of GPs are refusing to administer it.

Whilst many counter with the argument that the number of people the vaccine saves is greater than the number it harms, perhaps the real comparison needs to be (like in the 1976 example) how many will the vaccine kill as compared to swine flu?  Clearly, this would be the most tragic of all flu vaccine side effects.

Further 360 reading:

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What a week for swine flu in Asia.  There has been more press activity in that part of the world this week than – seemingly – since swine flu first hit the world’s headlines in April.

Interestingly, cases of swine flu are temporarily on their way down in Britain and in the United States, but we’re seeing a disturbing rise in cases in India and Asia.  Curiously, I would have thought that because of the significant population pressures in that part of the world, the disease would have spread a lot faster, and a lot sooner than it apparently has.

Or maybe, news is just slower to get out.

Yesterday, the Accociated Press commented that  “India confronted dueling outbreaks of swine flu and swine flu panic” as people flooded hospitals demanding to be tested for the virus, and stayed off the streets and out of schools and public areas.  The panic has forced up the cost of a single face mask thirty times from 5 rupees ($0.10) to 150 rupees ($3 USD).  In Mumbai, schools, offices and other public places are beginning to shut down as a “preventative measure”.  Meanwhile, Bloomberg is calling for some perspective citing that over 2,500 people in India die every day from tuberculosis and diarrhea.

Are we being overly concerned? Is Nepal over-reacting in its “fear [of a] swine flu invasion from India”?  Possibly, if we listen to Bollywood’s advice to simply provide education to people.  Possibly not, if we look at percentages and comparisons.

Last week, Maharashtra state has seen 11 of India’s 19 swine flu deaths – 3 of which were in Mumbai alone.  As absolute numbers, they can’t compare with TB deaths.  But in percentages (58% of all swine flu deaths), it’s a very concerning statistic.  More recently cases of swine flu – and deaths – have been identified in Pune,  Bangalore, Gujarat, Panchklula, Karnataka

Another “milestone” for swine flu, is that it has claimed its first aboriginal victim in Australia.  According to “H5N1 News and Resources about Pandemic Influenza”, blog’s author, swine flu is already disproportionately affecting other aboriginal communities around the world – but a survey run by one of the readers indicates that UK readers disproportionately will NOT accept vaccination when the shots are ready.  It would seem that the more advanced western cultures have the luxury of refusal of treatment, whereas cultures of poverty are more likely to be affected – and indeed more likely to benefit from the medicine we’re refusing in the West.

Again, we’re seeing interesting waves of media – perhaps increased public awareness hitting the west, while shock (and panic?) hits remoter regions.

Perhaps, most disturbing in these changing balances, is that Hong Kong is now finding that swine flu is resistant to Tamiflu – a drug that was supposed to help us get through the worst of the bug.  But then again, older people may be resistant to the disease in the first place owing to resistance built through mid-20th century exposure to other strains of H1N1.

Or, we might see swine flu waning whilst hype continues, according to Richard Schabas, a Canadian former chief medical officer?  Maybe not very likely if Canada has bought 50 million doses (for its 30 million population) for delivery in mid-Autumn.

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Welcome to the inaugural blog for SwineFluResources.info.  The contents of SwineFluCommentary.com are primarily news, views and specific items of interest surrounding the current swine flu – also known as H1N1 and H1N1 (2009) - pandemic.

Complementing the site www.SwineFluResources.info, this blog will have periodic postings of opinions and independent analysis concerning swine flu.  It will deal with a range of topical issues from the Spanish flu 1918, through today’s swine flu maps, recognising stomach flu symptoms and exploring the possibility of flu vaccine side effects.  Also, we review a range of products such as hand gel and face masks which may be helpful to offer additional protection whilst in public.

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